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Following the 2009 record attempts, we had the view that the only reason for not breaking the record was the lack of suitable conditions. The 2010 series of attempts reinforced this view. There was either no wind to launch our big kites, a large calm zone at medium altitude or the wind ran out beyond 10,000 ft. Despite doubling our attempt “window” to 2 weeks in March/April 2010, it was still not enough time to capture the ideal conditions to break the record. Perhaps 4 weeks at Cable Downs is enough to have a 90% chance of finding suitable conditions. We can’t afford that much time nor would we tolerate waiting for weeks on end for good winds.
From study of records, ideal wind conditions exist on average 1 in 10 days. This is not to say that if I spend 10 days at Cable Downs I am certain to encounter one day that will carry our kite to record altitude. There are records from Cobar weather station balloon Sondes of 25 consecutive days of unsuitable conditions for record altitudes but this is unusual. In the past 5 record attempts, there have been 3 days where the record could have been broken easily and 3 other days where it was possible but a struggle. This is 3 days from 30 that we were at the flying zone. There was 1 day in 2005 when the winch broke and 2 in 2007 where bad planning saw us fail to capitalise on the conditions. I am confident that if we are at Cable Downs when suitable conditions arise, we will break the record by a big margin. A crystal ball would be handy.
The logistics of organising a record attempt doesn’t just involve going to our flying zone with the kites and trailer. Numerous tasks have to done in the months preceding the record attempts. These include 4 people getting time off from work or from their business, obtaining approval from CASA, suspending family activities and having the money and time to build and/or buy equipment. If we include all the direct and indirect expenses, one series of attempts costs about $5,000. We try to time the attempts to coincide with Easter holidays but this restricts the potential range of wind conditions. The timing of the attempts is a compromise between maximising the chances of success and minimising the impact on all team members.
To reduce the time spent at Cable Downs we have proposed that we apply to CASA for a broader time permit period to fly kites at Cable Downs. Embedded within that period would be “flying visits” to Cable Downs planned to coincide with short term favourable weather reports. These quick hit and run attempts would see us maximise the chances of success while minimising time spent idly waiting for the right winds on Cable Downs air strip. We would choose a period of 3 months between early July and late August. This is a period in which westerlies dominate and according to the wind profile records, has a higher chance of success. However we need to submit our proposal to the Civil Aviation Safety Authority before we plan our next attack on the world record.
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